Friday, March 6, 2020

The Real Losers on Super Tuesday: Urgent Climate Action and Medicare for All. The Winner: Plutocracy

I find myself again and again returning to my deep anger towards the American corporate media, the neoliberal democrats and neocon republicans, and all the predatory capitalists and plutocrats whose greed and ignorance imperils my children, my grandchildren, all children everywhere, and the Earth upon which we live.
These forces are responsible for an estimated 78% of Americans being unaware of the truth and the depth of the climate crisis. If greed and ignorance and relentless propaganda weren’t engulfing us here in America, rather than reporting on the stock market we’d be hearing nonstop daily reports on the climate emergency and all the dramatic changes and actions that are being taken to fight climate disruption.
Think of the coronavirus and the daily updates, or the Russia investigation or the impeachment hearing, or the constant onslaught of what Trump is up to today, etc., etc. — and now imagine if the climate emergency were given this amount of continuous air time. Just imagine if the greatest crises humankind has ever faced were treated like the greatest crisis humankind has ever faced. Just imagine if we were an informed rather than massively propagandized people. Just imagine.
One result is that there never would have been any presidential candidate who wasn’t 100% committed to declaring a climate emergency and funding and implementing the Green New Deal immediately. Because we Americans would never have endorsed anyone who’s ignorance and ideology imperiled our children and the planet. Biden and all the neoliberal candidates never would have had a chance of getting our votes. Because we Americans would be an informed rather than uninformed populace.
Tragically, for us all, we continue to have a very long ways to go. — Molly


On three big issues of major concern to the public, Biden ranges from being fairly good to being wholly inadequate. Sanders is superb on all three.
Primaries can be long drawn-out affairs. The Obama-Clinton struggle of spring-summer 2008 went down to the wire, still being contested in June. As I write Tuesday evening, the delegate count for Super Tuesday is still not known, and the actual count for California could take a long time to nail down. Joe Biden pulled off a surprise upset, virtually running the tables east of the Mississippi, and doing much better than expected in the big state of Texas. The final delegate tally of the two front-runners may be fairly close in the end. Sanders performed at the top of his game in California (which has about 10% of all the delegates to be had in the race). Warren and Bloomberg may not get that many delegates themselves, given the 15% threshold for gaining delegates in a district. In contrast, Sanders would usually get at least some, It seems likely to be a two-person race hereafter.

Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg did not perform well. Bloomberg spent half a billion dollars for a very modest number of delegates. He admitted Tuesday that his strategy had been to provoke a brokered Democratic convention and win after a deadlocked first round, when delegates were released from their initial commitments and could swing to Bloomberg as a savior. As things now stand, it seems a little unlikely that this strategy will work (or that it ever could have). There is a danger now that if Bloomberg stays in, he could throw the race to Sanders, which is the very last thing he wants.

Warren staying in through Super Tuesday certainly hurt Sanders a great deal. I hasten to add that it is her right to run for president for as long as she is willing and able, and I’m not criticizing her in any way, just analyzing the outcome. In fact, Informed Comment was happy to syndicate an Andrew Bacevich column in 2018 urging her to run. Although it cannot be assumed that all her voters would have gravitated to Sanders, certainly some would have, and with an extra ten points Bernie would have won some states he lost. If she departs after coming in third in her home state, that will help Sanders going forward.

Sanders performed well below the polling. Polls had him competitive in Virginia, where he was crushed by Biden. Polls showed him winning Texas, whereas that turned into a close race.

Polls showed some improvement for Sanders among African-Americans, but in reality he typically only attracted 16% or 17% of their vote. That is a big problem. African-Americans comprise roughly a fourth of Democratic Party voters and if you can’t excite them to come out and vote in big numbers, you are in danger of losing to the Republican candidate in the generals. Indeed, that is my read on how Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Michigan in 2016. Clinton did not bother to campaign in Detroit and just generated little excitement in in that city, which suffered a substantial fall-off in turn-out compared to the Obama years. The Black vote over all in Michigan fell by about a percentage point in 2016, and if that had not happened, Clinton would have won the state. The results of Super Tuesday raised questions about Sanders’ viability in the generals because his campaign just never built out in the African-American community, unlike the campaign’s impressive outreach to Latinos.

If the Biden momentum continues in subsequent contests and he becomes the Democratic standard-bearer, that has some big policy implications.

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