NASA: Earth Could Warm 20 Percent More Than Earlier Estimates

by Brandon Baker

NASA says we should expect the planet to become even warmer than researchers
thought in the past.

According to new research, Drew Shindell, a climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, says the planet could become 20 percent warmer than previous estimates. The image included in a briefing on the study shows temperature-increase estimates for 2099.

A new NASA study suggests that the Earth will warm by about 20 percent. Graphic credit: NASA Scientific Visualization Studio/NASA Center for Climate Stimulation

According to a statement on the study from NASA, researchers developing warming estimates by calculating the Earth’s “transient climate response.” This measure determines how much global temperatures will change as carbon dioxide’s atmospheric presence grows at about 1 percent per year until the total amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide has doubled. Transient climate responses have range from near 2.52 degrees in recent research, to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) estimate of 1.8 degrees. Shindell’s study estimates a transient climate response of 3.06 degrees. He says it is unlikely values would cool below 2.34 degrees.

   
His study also considers how aerosols, or airborne particles contribute to climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. Aerosols are produced by both natural sources like volcanoes and wildfires, as well as by manufacturing, driving automobiles, producing energy  and more. Some aerosols cause warming, depending on their components, while some create a cooling effect. According to NASA, it is necessary to account for atmospheric aerosols in order to understand the role carbon dioxide emissions have on global warming.

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